SLSD's Five Year Forecast - October, 2022

Ohio requires school districts to complete a five-year forecast, twice per year. Forecasting helps districts plan ahead and make necessary changes before small financial problems become larger ones.  On October 20, 2022 the Southwest Local School District Board of Education approved the updated forecast for October 2022.  The October forecast shows the district having a positive cash balance throughout all five years.  Residential property tax valuations are expected to grow 2.6% for tax years 2023-2027. Earned income taxes are expected to continue to grow the next 5 years.  Southwest continues to see strong student enrollment growth district wide.  This additional enrollment growth continues to create financial difficulties the district must navigate.

Care’s funds continue to help bolster the district’s financial condition.  However, once these funds are gone in fiscal year 2024 the district will see a significant increase in general fund operating expenses as expenses move from Care’s funding back to the general fund.  Many across the state are calling this the “fiscal cliff” created by Care’s Act funds and stagnate state funding levels.

Like all things in this world, the forecast can change.  As the district grows, so does the cost to serve more students.  This ever-present change requires the Board and Administration to keep a close eye on both short-term and long-term financial issues.  Reacting quickly to changes ensures that the district can effectively and efficiently meet student and community needs.  State funding is a key variable for the district that can change dramatically. Changes to this funding source are being passed through Ohio legislature right now.  Depending on its outcome, the district’s forecast could change considerably.  Other key variables include health care costs, required staffing levels, and new construction.  Significant changes to any of these variables could have a substantial effect on the long-term forecast for the district.

As always, we strive to provide academic and social growth for ALL students, EVERY DAY.

For questions regarding this forecast, please contact SLSD Treasurer Thomas Lowe at (513) 367-4139 or Thomas.Lowe@southwestschools.org.

FY23 - Forecast Assumptions - October 2022
FY22 - Assumptions on State Foundation Revenue
FY22 - Five Year Forecast